{"id":761,"date":"2009-12-04T15:21:24","date_gmt":"2009-12-04T19:21:24","guid":{"rendered":"\/blog\/?p=761"},"modified":"2011-09-08T04:47:48","modified_gmt":"2011-09-08T09:47:48","slug":"log-transform-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.holypotato.net\/?p=761","title":{"rendered":"Log Transform Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Back in February, just weeks before the market bottomed, <a href=\/?p=656>I did a quick post about the log transform<\/a>, using the Dow as an example case. Here I&#8217;ve just updated my spreadsheet with what the market&#8217;s done in the last few months.<\/p>\n<p>It has been a wild ride: half of the decline from the highs in 2008 have come back in just a few short months. Many people, myself included, have wrung our hands and worried that perhaps this is too much recovery too quickly, and we could be in for a (less severe) correction&#8230; but when you look at it, we&#8217;re still a bit below that long-term post-war trendline. So perhaps the crash was overdone, and the rapid recovery was what was needed to bring us back to &#8220;fair value&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p><img src='\/wp-content\/djialogupdateDec2009.gif' alt='DJIA 1940-present with trendline' title='DJIA 1940-present with trendline' \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.four-pillars.ca\/2009\/12\/04\/risky-stockstocks-are-more-risky-than-you-think-they-are\/\">Rob Bennet has a guest post at Four Pillars today<\/a> discussing the idea of adjusting your exposure to stocks depending on where the markets are relative to this long-term trendline. <strong>Edit<\/strong>: <em>sorry, he&#8217;s using a different measure, but it&#8217;s still a related concept.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.holypotato.com\/?p=761\">Permalink<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Back in February, just weeks before the market bottomed, I did a quick post about the log transform, using the Dow as an example case. Here I&#8217;ve just updated my spreadsheet with what the market&#8217;s done in the last few months. It has been a wild ride: half of the decline from the highs in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.holypotato.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/761"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.holypotato.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.holypotato.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.holypotato.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.holypotato.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=761"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.holypotato.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/761\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.holypotato.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=761"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.holypotato.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=761"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.holypotato.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=761"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}