Oddly Optimistic

May 5th, 2006 by Potato

I’m optimistic about tomorrow (technically today now). I think it will go well. I know my shit, at the PhD level if not the master’s. My presentation is reasonably polished. I know the two or three things I inevitably forgot to do, and I don’t care.

I had a great practice run of my lecture this afternoon. A little too good — I don’t think the actual talk will be that good or that smooth, but as long as it’s close, it will be fine. I’ve spent the last bit of tonight not worrying. I made some cookies for my committee, I cleaned up a bit more.

Optimism is a bit of a strange feeling for me (though I do have times where I’m hopelessly so). I just hope it’s not a sign of over-confidence.

Wish me luck tomorrow (today), and the next time I post, I should have some extra letters after my name!

Let’s do this.

The Chi-Squared Test

April 25th, 2006 by Potato

Greatly contributing to my various moments of weakness lately was the fact that I bought a box of 12 Mars bars a few weeks ago. Interestingly, they were all contest wrappers, with a 1-in-6 chance of “winning instantly” yet in 12 bars, I didn’t get a single winner. That got me to thinking that maybe they rigged the contest so that winning wrappers aren’t put into bulk packages (since the profit per bar is lower). It’s a type of manipulation that’s been done before — Tim Horton’s, for example, only has cars in it’s roll-up-the-rim contest under large or extra-large cups, and regionally skews the odds.

But rather than bandying about useless speculation and rhetoric, let’s go to the statistics! The Chi-Squared Test allows us to determine whether the observed frequency of a sample differs significantly from the expected frequency of the population. In other words, we know that in any realistic sample we’re not going to get the expected frequency of winners: for every 12 Mars bars, we won’t always see 2 winners. Sometimes there will be 1, sometimes 4, sometimes none, and if you’re really lucky, all 12 could be winners. With statistics, we can see what the odds are that our difference from the expected frequency is due to random chance alone (unfortunately, it will never tell us definitively that shenanigans are afoot — but we can take the probabilities and make up our own mind).

So, our expected frequency, E is given on the package as 1/6, or 0.1667. Our observed frequency O is 0/12, or 0. Then, we find the Chi-Squared statistic which is (O – E)2/E = 0.1667.

We do the same for the non-winning bars, O = 12/12 = 1, E = 5/6 = 0.8333. (O – E)2/E = 0.0333.

The total is 0.2000. For a single degree of freedom Chi-Squared, this is merely unfortunate, and not different enough to suspect shenanigans (a greater than 10% chance that this was due to chance alone).

But I’m keeping my eye on you, Mars-Effem, Inc.

Yes, yes I will do nearly anything to procrastinate when the mood strikes.

This is Your Scalp on Science

April 25th, 2006 by Potato

This is Your Scalp on Science or The Science Diet: How to Gain Weight and Lose Hair Through Stress and Malnutrition.

From animal studies, we can definitively say that Science causes cancer in lab rats. We have also seen statistically significant correlations with maze-running, aversion, and strange weight-gain behaviours. Maze-running in particular is interesting as the correlation is non-linear. It is a behaviour virtually unknown without trace amounts of Science present, however, after a certain threshold the amount of maze-running behaviours begins to drop as more Science is added (this has been dubbed the “psychology” point).

In the current paper we discuss an investigation of Science on human subjects (ethics note: while this study has been approved by the ethics review board, informed consent was not obtained from our “background” subject group, who were forced into a single science class as a “balancing” requirement; the low dosage used as well as the generally accepted safety of Science justified these actions. For the more intensive dosages, the usual methods of informed consent and voluntary enrolment were followed.)

Three basic dosages of Science were examined: background, consisting of less than 60 hours of undergraduate-level instruction, with no exposure after age 24; undergraduate, consisting of 3-5 years of daily exposure, occasionally reaching acutely intense levels; and graduate, consisting of continuous Science exposure until the subject was no longer able to procreate (or, in very rare — and may we say, beautiful — cases, when successful procreation spawned a protective desire to withdraw from the study). As mentioned above, consent was not typically obtained from the background group. The undergraduate group was enrolled with the promise of a “chance” at an admission slot in medical school and vague predictions about job growth, employability, and potential income. The graduate group was, oddly enough, convinced to join the study with no more than the offer of a break from the real world.

Our results, in a word, are disturbing.

The background group often reported feelings of resentment and hostility towards Science following their exposure, and these subjective measures were backed up with a subsequent behavioural aversion. Otherwise, no long term effects, either positive or negative, were seen on the majority of the background group as a result of their Science exposure.

The undergraduate group often reported an “appreciation” for Science, although reservations were often held about particular branches and fields. Interestingly, while chemistry had the most complaints from subjects, there was no consistent pattern of resentment. We hypothesize that there may be patterns based upon the student’s area of study, for example biology students may dislike physics and chemistry moreso than biology, but we do not have the sample size in our data to make conclusions of that depth. Otherwise, the undergraduate group suffered a number of minor deleterious effects, including above-average weight gain (90%), impaired social integration (85%), vastly reduced courtship attempts (85%), poor sleeping habits (80%), poor social integration and networking (70%), periodic alcohol abuse (65%), excessive and often ridiculous highlighting practices (30%). Oddly enough, the reduced socialization and mating seen came despite significant increases in their driving factors (namely, lonliness and sex drive).

The graduate group, however, had the most severe reactions to Science. In addition to all of the social problems above, the graduate students suffered severely accelerated hair loss and/or greying, a vast reduction in real income and long-term income potential, a decrease in the number of and sucess rate of courtship behaviours, a oncomitant decrease in fecundity, and a virtually non-existant land-ownership rate (despite a 5-year job assurance, and a nearly 50% ownership rate in the age-matched controls). Furthermore, there were widespread cases of malnutrition, poor posture, nearsightedness, high blood pressure, and a general inability to calculate the tip on a typical restaurant bill. The positive effects of Science were extremely difficult to extract from the background noise: a general feeling of “warm fuzzies” was seen sporadically when Science appeared to be helping the world at large. These were fleeting, at best, and a dark humour bordering on brooding melancholy was more typical. A deeper understanding of the universe as a whole is, undoubtably, a nearly universal benefit. However, it was nearly always coupled with anger and resentment at “the idiots in charge of it all” and the “unwashed masses who follow them because they don’t know enough to act otherwise.” Which side the net benefit of this relationship falls on is difficult to determine.

Additionally, an increase in vocabulary was reported anecdotally. However, we could not quantitatively distinguish a difference between the Science students and those in English. This matter is still in doubt as there were significant questions surrounding the typical English structure of “like-like-like, like, you know” as it is unclear whether this should be counted as a hexasyllabic complex, or a string of monosyllabic gibberish.

In conclusion, while the cancer and maze-running rates were satisfyingly low in the human subjects exposed to Science, numerous deleterious effects were seen with little compensatory positive life changes. Thus, it can be said that long-term exposure to Science should be avoided on an individual basis. Interestingly, it appears as though Science has profound benefits for society as a whole, despite the cost in individual life quality [see Hawking, 1991, and Sagan, 1996]. Unfortunately, this study did not investigate altruistic characteristics in the Science group, nor the possibility that our volunteers may have been a self-destructive, self-selecting group. Further research in these areas is called for.

Figure 1: Hair loss and greying seen following 1 year of Science exposure at the graduate level. The hair was originally thick and black all over.

Degree of Hair Loss, 1 year into MSc

Figure 2: Hair loss and greying seen following 3 years of Science exposure at the graduate level. Note that ethical guidelines required us to intervene in this case in the best interest of the subject, so it should be noted that this degree of hair loss is subsequent to a year of topical Rogaine treatments. Initially, the subject in question exhibited the grocery list of side effects to the Rogaine, so the dosage was halved and no longer vigorously massaged into the scalp. This may have decreased its overall effectiveness, though despite those qualifications the hair loss is frightening.

Degree of Hair Loss, 3 years into MSc

They’re Trying To Kill Me

April 20th, 2006 by Potato

Wow, I’ve been talking about movies a lot lately. Let’s get back to the real world for just a quick post here (I know, the real world sucks, which is why we watch movies)…

So I get a call this morning that I need to quickly, like right-this-minute, edit my acknowledgments and re-send them to the department, because one of my examiners is listed there as a co-author for my review paper so he can’t be an examiner so if that’s the case I’m basically fucked for defending this term. I’m a little groggy and not believing this, but I do it, and check my email and find a whole string of messages about this.

You see, there was a hell of a time getting an examining board together for me, so in the end we had to use one of the people on my supervisory committee. This isn’t terribly unusual, since you try to nab the people who know your subject area for your committee when you start, and those end up being the same people qualified to examine you. The only stipulation is that they sit on the sidelines while you prepare the thesis (and he did).

… so when someone caught that he was listed as a co-author, they weren’t sure about how kosher the whole thing was and all of a sudden everyone was scrambling about looking for a last minute replacement examiner and recklessly throwing around terrible words like “delay” or “postpone”. Nuh-uh, none of that.

Then, after a lot of stressing and hair-pulling, and my committee member/examiner testifying that he really hasn’t seen the review paper in about a year (and truthfully is really only a coauthor because he’s part of the same group — he hasn’t written a damn thing, and I doubt he even read the whole thing through yet, let alone reading all the studies that went into it), the university said that it was ok, and we’ll go ahead as planned, so everything’s ok now.

Some days I swear they’re just trying to give me a stroke to save the trouble of an exam.

Good News, For A Change

April 15th, 2006 by Potato

Well, for a change I’ve got some good news: I won an OGS!

For those who don’t know, an OGS is a provincial scholarship worth $15,000 and is rather prestigious. Of course, I don’t actually get $15,000 more than I would have otherwise… it simply means that my supervisor doesn’t have to pay for a good portion of my pay, and I fill out a different box on my tax return (though I do take home about $1000 more than I would otherwise, which is exciting).

It was a big surprise when the letter came in the mail, since usually the rumour mill puts in some good predictions as to who made the short list, and I wasn’t there. I did win one last year, but lost it due to the delay in graduating with my master’s (it was only applicable to my PhD), which made it doubly surprising that I won this year, since they just took one away from me. It’s a real confidence booster at this point, and also some extra motivation to not fuck up in my PhD.

Aside from that, not too much has been going on. I bathed the kitty today, which was heartbreaking and painful. She makes the saddest little kitten noises when I bathe her, so there’s no mistaking that I’m a horrible horrible monster torturing the poor thing. Unfortunately, she’s been itcy lately, so it had to be done. She’s really crazy when she gets itchy, often running around the apartment at full tilt, as though she were trying to outrun the itches (this is to a much greater degree than the usual “kitty beans” daily tear across the apartment). I felt sad for her when she was itchy, and I felt sad for her in the bath, but at the end of it all I had a good laugh, because she’s less than half her usual size when she’s wet. She looks like a little squirrel. A wet squirrel.

I ran across Jamie’s website recently, and holy crap has a lot happened to him! He got married, moved to Japan, and took a bunch of pictures! It made me think of all the people I knew from physics, and all the good times we had back then. I figured that we’d keep in touch after we graduated, but I don’t think I’ve kept up with any of them. Sure, we all went through some very traumatic things in physics, and meeting up afterwards would inevitably remind us of some of that (such as drinking jolt and eating cheese like it was a job), and we did kind of disperse to the far corners of the globe, but that’s not really why I lost touch with all of them. You see, it’s because I’m a horrible, horrible person. Right now, as I write this, I could be back in Toronto playing poker with my friends. Instead, I’m here simply because I gave the cat a bath and after she scratched me all to ratshit, I was shaking pretty badly from the adrenaline and just didn’t feel like driving for two hours. And my friend Dan, who I’ve known since grade 1 moved out to Dancouver. Despite keeping in pretty close contact after I moved out here, I’ve barely spoken to him a half dozen times for the year he’s been out there, and I don’t think I’ve talked to him at all since New Year’s (not even via a much reviled instant messenger!)

Anyhow, I’ve got to stop leaving comments that are longer than the original post on other people’s blogs. That’s why I have my own website.