Blessed by the Potato

It’s my 800th post! I was trying to think of ways of celebrating this arbitrary milestone, but they all involved the chocolate bar sale at RCSS this week, which means I don’t have very good news for my diet update this week. Well, actually, it’s not all bad. I’ve been much better about my regular meals, even having salad for lunch, much to the very vocal shock and surprise of my coworkers. It’s just that I’ve also been grinding away at analysis for 10-12 hours a day for the last two weeks or so, and that has involved a lot of snacking. Worse yet, I haven’t done much at all in the way of exercise through all this, and the weather’s not getting any better.

The housing bubble seemed to crack into the media’s attention this week, with numerous stories on the matter, thanks in part to some attention from reports from CCPA, Howe, the OECD, and TD.

One important distinction to make is that the US was not the only country to have a housing bubble collapse in the last few years: most of Europe did as well. So if some analyst lays out the reasons why we won’t have a “US-style collapse” here, well, that’s just playing with semantics. We could have a UK-style collapse. Or a Spanish one. Or our very own flavour. Yes, due to how our lending is set up we’re less likely to have “waves” of defaults, but that’s a fine point. The housing market in the US was not hunky-dory save for the defaults (and we didn’t really see them in our 1989 crash either). The fact is that housing is too expensive, and it will come down. There’s still plenty of debate about how quickly that will happen, and even how far it will come, and I will vigorously debate that the answers are “over the next 3-5 years” and “far enough that you don’t want to buy now” — but those are opinions vs facts. While we may not have defaults accelerating the downward cycle, we do have the experience of watching the rest of the world burn. Once it’s common knowledge that yes, our house is on fire too, I don’t think people will dick around before heading for the exits, which will help speed the process along.

In the US, Barry Ritholtz points out that the spin from the NAR did not help anything. Something to keep in mind when reading CREA/TREB releases!

David Fleming had a look at his new condo at West Side Lofts, and was not impressed. An important reminder that pre-construction is supposed to sell at a significant discount because of the risks inherent in buying something sight-unseen. Plus of course the delays, and the risk the market could move against you.

An engineering student did a cross-Canada trip in an electric car he built himself! Should (slightly) help put people’s minds at ease about range anxiety and charging infrastructure, at least a little bit.

Michael James comments on an article about using “robot traders” to move against the herd and stabilize markets. He asks the same question that popped into my mind when I first saw it on Larry McDonald’s blog — who’ll pay for all of that trading, especially if the positions lose money for years at a time?

John Hempton of Bronte Capital had an interesting post about doing due diligence on an internet travel booking company in China. It’s a long post, but a good read on some basic ways to check up on a company you may be interested in. He came to the conclusion that the company was worth shorting, which raised something of a shitstorm — UTA was the biggest decliner on the NYSE the day after the blog post. There are two followup posts as well.

I’ve long been a browser tab addict with Firefox, opening all kinds of links in new tabs to follow-up on later. I usually use the CTRL-click shortcut to have a link open in a new tab, rather than right-clicking, then going to “open in new tab”. However, Netbug just pointed out that clicking with the middle mouse button (on most mice, that’s clicking your scroll wheel) also does the trick. Efficiency!

And finally, it’s a new school year, which generally means very little to the full-time grad student. However, it did mean the replaying of our annual introduction to the department for the new students, including laying out the details on tuition support and stipends/scholarships. Which has resumed a discussion that is near and dear to my heart: Year X & funding. Funding for students is only guaranteed out to 5 years for PhD students (4 for those who already have a MSc). However, the average degree takes something more like 7 years — indeed, just finding information on the actual statistics for the time to complete a degree is proving to be nearly impossible. If you’ve got any good data on these issues (even just at the departmental level at whatever university you’re at) please share! There was also some brief talk on the fact that the funding slide was exactly the same as the one I saw when I first arrived here [redacted] years ago, which was old even then. In over a decade there have been no cost-of-living adjustments to the stipends grad students get, even though the university can’t be ignorant of inflation, as tuition has gone up 35% in that time.

For some reason people around the office started talking about drafting their bucket lists (I hope someone’s not seriously ill and I just don’t know about it). Some of the entries were hilarious, in particular one person’s desire to get a pet pig named Bacon.

It made me realize that I want to get a dog and name it Indiana.

…

Beyond that, there’s not much I can think of that I really would put on such a list. I’m not a big travel person, or a list person for that matter. Write a novel maybe? (A good novel). I don’t know, I guess I just don’t like the idea of setting my life up like a checklist (especially since I have set up the milestones for my thesis completion that way, and failed miserably!). I just live each day as it comes.

Plus if it was set up as a series of checkpoints and goals, I’d probably be very disappointed in how things turned out (e.g., I’m 30 years old and still in school!). Yet I don’t think I’m disappointed in my life.

Am I? Should I be?

I was explaining my playlist at work today:

“This is a song about a mad scientist who is lonely, and builds himself a girlfriend.”

“This is a song about a giant squid who is lonely.”

“This one’s a love ballad from Charon to Pluto, trying to reassure and cheer up Pluto after we revoked its planet status.”

“This is a song about bedtime and how you long for the comfort of your trusty old teddy bear.”

“A whole song about Ikea! You guys all like Ikea.. for college kids and divorced men…”

“You know, sometimes, the world just wins, you know? It just fucking wins. Every. Goddamned. Time.”

“Uhh… Tater, are you trying to tell us something?”

No, I just like JoCo, ok?

Oh, fun human tricks!

So there’s this yoga pose that involves touching your nose to the ground without supporting yourself with your hands, and then sitting back up on your knees. It sounded impossible to me, but the girls say it’s super easy, and doesn’t require much back strength at all. So they do it: they kneel on the ground, with their bums right on their heels, then, with their hands behind their backs, lean forward and touch the ground gently with their nose, and then come back up. I’m amazed: it looks like magic, like that shouldn’t be possible. So they convince me to try it, and I realize why I think it should be impossible: because for a man, it is. My centre of gravity is high enough that when I start to lean over, it goes in front of my knees, and thud, I faceplant into the ground. Hard. A fun prank you can play on any male friend who doesn’t know better! (Or one who does, but is easily convinced to try stupid things that look like they should be impossible for him).

I’ve been super busy lately, and I’ve shifted my leisure habits from blogging, writing, and finance lately to playing StarCraft and fiddling with Flash animations (which had even fewer views than I had suspected, and zero comments… I guess I only find myself funny because I’m sleep deprived?).

Anyhow, this picture should give you an idea of how the diet has been going this week:

Ok, actually it wasn’t all that bad. I did get back on the bike, and aside from the last day of cookies (and tomorrow’s chocolate party), I have been pretty good with the diet. I caught up on my sleep over the weekend, which also helped a lot with feeling better and getting a workout in. However, according to my “aggressive yet totally doable thesis timeline” I was supposed to defend my thesis last week. As you have not seen a post to that effect (or even that I’ve finished the first draft of my thesis), you know that I didn’t defend my thesis last week. That made me sad, and cookies are good friends when you’re in your little box of sadness.

Despite the recent spate of results coming out of so many companies, I haven’t had time to go over any of them in any kind of detail, and haven’t listened to a single conference call this quarter. So I’m not really in much of a position to come up with any good investing posts, but that won’t stop me from spewing out a few half-baked thoughts in this quasi-weekly roundup:

BP: They capped the well, the stock recovered very nicely from the bottom… and then the stock went down and down and down again. I have no idea why. I’m ambivalent on it at this price: it’s not cheap enough to be interesting for me to buy more, but especially with the well capped so the liability is no longer infinite, I wouldn’t want to bail at this point…

DR.UN: Medical Facilities is a neat little income trust that I flagged a few months ago as one to watch for the next quarter or two to see how things go. They got really cheap there for a while, yielding up around 15% (which would likely become a ~11% dividend after conversion). I skimmed their quarterly release and things looked ok — not great, but ok — but I didn’t have time to really read it in detail. They’ve since gone up about 10%, and I’m no longer sure how much of the value is there…

The Banks: the Canadian housing market looks like it’s finally following the rest of the world back down to reality. Now, the Canadian banks have very little risk of complete loss associated with that event, but I doubt very much that even the CMHC makes the risk zero. AFAIK, they will at the very least face a reduction in their mortgage portfolios as the number of Canadian homeowners follows the American trajectory from ~69% back to the historical ~64%, and the sizes of those associated loans shrink. Once the downturn gets into full swing, they’ll probably have a few bad quarters/years until things shake out. So even though they already are starting to look cheap again, I’ve been sitting on my hands on the assumption that they’ll get cheaper in the next few years. Unfortunately, I suppose that could be described as fruitless market timing, and that this idea is already baked into the prices… that said I do still have some exposure to Canadian banks (I still hold TD), though I think I’m slightly underweight compared to the index.

Conversely, the American banks may have hit bottom already. BAC is making the top picks of several analysts, but I haven’t had time to do any research to see if it might be fore me… likewise Manulife has been getting cheaper by the day, yet again, I can’t say yet if it’s cheap enough. With these though, I’m not sure I’d ever be able to — these entities are just so big, with so many moving parts and black boxes, I don’t think I could ever fully get my head around them with the skills and tools I have at my disposal right now.

Links:

An interesting article on how scarce helium is on our planet, and how a bone-headed move by the US government is causing a large part of our reserves to be sold off at rock-bottom prices, making helium too cheap to bother recycling… for now. To be fair, we can manufacture helium from nuclear processes, but not in large quantities, and certainly not cheaply.

Also, Netbug has relaunched his blog, with a slightly new address.

Calories can be scary things sometimes. Many people let them rule their lives, obsessively counting and studying the calories in their food. But, there are many little known facts about calories that you can use to master them.

This series of helpful videos will give any would-be dieter the information they need to come up with a reason to eat the foods they love, and would be denied by other diets. Enjoy!

Meta:

I could not for the life of me make the programming to have a play/pause button within the flash animation work, so I gave up and exported the movies, then uploaded them to YouTube, which I then embedded here. Far messier than it needed to be, but it works. I wanted to dive in and get some animation going while I was in the mood, and didn’t want to spend my 15-day trial with Flash just learning how to program properly, psssh. Some of this may be clunky as a result, as I was just trying to kludge my way through making Flash do what I wanted it to do. I figured I used Hypercard, how different could Flash be? The answer: very. What I found really frustrating was that I would do the same thing at different times, and I would get different results. One particularly frustrating thing was when I tried to make a part rotate. I’d set the pivot point, do the rotate graphic, and it’d work fine. Then, I’d do it again, and instead of rotating as I expected, it would try to do a 3D-esque out-of-plane warp/rotate animation, which was just ridiculous.

Photo credits: The food pictures were both taken from Wikimedia commons:
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Waffles_with_Strawberries.jpg
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Choco_chip_cookie.png